Recurvature out to sea or a landfall in New England or Canada were the preferred solutions. The 0Z September 11, 2017, track forecast by the operational European model for Jose (red line, adjusted by CFAN using a proprietary technique that accounts for storm movement since 0Z Monday), along with the track of the average of the 50 members of the European model ensemble (heavy black line), and the track forecasts from the “high probability cluster” (grey lines)-the five European model ensemble members that have performed best with Jose thus far.

One quarter of the solutions resulted in an eventual landfall in the U.S., and another quarter in Canada. At that time, shear may relax enough to allow Jose to intensify, and NHC is going with a strengthening trend late in the week, making the storm a high-end Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds by Saturday.įigure 1. The 20 track forecasts for Jose from the 0Z Monday, SeptemGFS model ensemble forecast. A strong ridge of high pressure will build in to the north of Jose by Thursday, forcing the hurricane to move west-northwest towards the U.S. Moderate to high wind shear, combined with dry air and a passage over its own cold wake in the ocean, will likely continue to weaken Jose through Wednesday, despite very warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 29.5☌ (85☏). Jose is under high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and this high shear has degraded the storm significantly over the past three days, leaving it a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds at 11 am EDT Monday. Hi-res /LFG211wPU1- Antti Lipponen September 10, 2017 and Canada next week.īeautiful and scary #Sentinel2 #satellite image of #hurricane #Jose (). When Jose completes this loop late this week, it will be close to the north-central Bahamas, which are now in the NHC 5-day cone of uncertainty. The rather odd forecast track is the result of a mid-level high to the east of Jose which will build south of Jose in 24 hours, then west of Jose in about 48 hours, and then north of Jose between days 3 and 4. Jose will spend the next four days performing a slow clockwise loop without affecting any land areas. Hurricane Jose is now wandering several hundred miles to the north of the Leeward Islands, after brushing them on Saturday as a high-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. (see our Sunday night post on Irma), the region will also need to keep an eye on Hurricane Jose over the next few days. GOES-16 data is considered preliminary and non-operational.Įven as Tropical Storm Irma continues to wallop parts of the Southeast U.S. Above: GOES-16 view of Hurricane Jose at 10:30 am EDT September 11, 2017.

Hurricane track jose